THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN? YES. BUT WE HELP YOU TO TURN THIS VERY UNCERTAINTY INTO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.
WHY SCENARIO PLANNING? IT'S A PROCESS FOR SUCCESS.
No one can afford to stand still in today's fast moving and ever changing world. Yet, only few people and organizations are prepared for this perpetual change and can handle it with the needed strategic flexibility.
Then start to actively manage change and see it as a great chance for growth and improvement. How? Scenario planning - or simply scenarios - is an excellent way to become aware of possible develop-ments before they occur and to take conscious decisions accordingly. Not by trying to predict ONE possible future – as trends and forecasts do. The key to success is to identify critical uncertainties and to see a VARIETY of future outcomes and possibilities.
For this purpose, scenario planning guides your mind and intuition in a structured, analytical process, which may lead to surprising outcomes and help you and your organization to stay open, flexible, and to expect the unexpected.
In our approach, the scenario technique is a living, continuing, and comprehensive process, shaped by the people who participate in it. And it is action-oriented in every step. In the scenario process, managers create and discuss various plausible stories of the future and their implications for strategic decisions to be taken in the present moment.
With scenarios we guide individuals, companies, startups, NGOs, business associations, political bodies, research organizations, etc. to better decisions in strategy-, reform- and change-processes and in the development of new business ideas. We also apply scenarios for a new form of project planning, for structuring workshop discussions, and for engaging people in collaboration in a new way.
Scenarios were originally applied by the US Air Force for strategic planning. Then, in the 1960/70, a team at Royal Dutch Shell adopted scenarios for business purposes. With great success: Shell had already been prepared for an oil-shock scenario when others didn’t even dare to think about it. As a result, Shell was able to skyrocket from a rather weak market position to the top 2 of the world’s leading oil companies.
SCENARIOS IN A NUTSHELL:
DEFINE A TOPIC - ASK A SPECIFIC QUESTION - GATHER INFORMATION - ANALYZE IT - IDENTIFY DRIVING FACTORS - THINK ABOUT THEIR VARIOUS FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS - CREATE FUTURE SCENARIOS - THINK OF WAYS TO THRIVE IN ALL OF THEM - TAKE DECISIONS AND ACTIONS ACCORDINGLY - MONITOR THE KEY FACTORS - REMAIN OPEN FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES.
We help businesses and other organizations to turn uncertainty into competitive advantage and to actively create their desired future.
As change is the only constant in life, we want to enable individuals and organisations to deal with uncertainty and change in a better way. How? Scenarios help us to gain new, often surprising insights in the topics, questions, and challenges we are facing. They enable us to see various perspectives and to discover new possibilities. And with this awareness, we are able to take better decisions with clear intention and actively create our future.
The scenario technique is not restricted to specific industries or topics. Much in contrast: scenarios may provide valuable contributions to virtually every sector and a huge variety of questions which afford decision-making.
IS THIS FOR YOU?
Yes if you consider yourself to be an EXPLORER, INNOVATOR and/or BUSINESS ADVENTURER – or aspire to become one. The persons we are talking about may be found in NEW EMERGING BUSINESSES, STARTUPS or ESTABLISHED COMPANIES and ORGANIZATIONS as INTRAPRENEURS and IDEA DRIVERS. What they have in common is that they WANT TO MOVE SOMETHING in and with their business. They are COURAGEOUS. They are CURIOUS. They are ADVENTUROUS. And we help them to rock their business.
It's my passion to bring the fascination and advantages of scenario planning to the people who will profit from it.
I had the great opportunity to learn the scenario method from one of the best: former chief strategist with Royal Dutch Shell, Karl Rose. During the passed 5 years, I conducted scenario projects for a variety of ministries, companies and business associations.
As a trained investment banker
and business administrator, I like to see the big picture as well as
specific details - and to connect the dots. Scenarios are an excellent and promising way to achieve that.
I bring all my knowledge about
micro- and macro economic
developments and finance into
every scenario project.
RED SWAN e.U. is a consultancy specializing in scenario planning. The company was founded by Ursula Eysin and Johannes Eysin in January 2015 and is based in Vienna.